The CFP Committee has unveiled their Top 25, leading us into a huge Week 10 set of games across the country. The most exciting of which appear to be a pair of Big 12 shootouts. Texas Tech and WVU looks like a game that should be loaded with fantasy goodness as does the marquee game of the week, TCU at Oklahoma State.
Trevone Boykin $9400
Boykin is the top play this week, as he is every week, and should be a cornerstone of your lineups if you’re paying for quarterback. This game has an O/U of 76.5 with TCU being a 4.5 point favorite. TCU has a team total of 40.5, which is one of the highest of the weekend. Boykin has had at least 40 fantasy points in 6 straight games and should continue that streak this week.
Patrick Mahomes $7600
This game has the highest total of any game this week, and it still might hit the over. Texas Tech has to score points in order to make up for their lack of defense, so they do just that. Mahomes struggled for a couple weeks on the road, even against bad defenses, but got back on track last week against Oklahoma State. I fully expect him to be in the same form he was last week, and help TTU meet their 35 point team total.
Wendell Smallwood $6400
If there has ever been a week to pay up for two running backs, this is the week. If you’ve watched Texas Tech this year, you know that they just don’t know how to tackle. They’re all but incapable of doing so. Wendell Smallwood is hard for good teams to tackle, so you can only imagine how much trouble he’s going to give TTU. If he has anything less than 100 yards and a touchdown, I’ll almost be offended.
Demario Richard $6800
If Smallwood doesn’t meet your fancy, Demario Richard is the other incredible option that we get this week. Arizona State is going to look to use Richard, and their other massive running back Kalen Ballage, to pound the ball, burn time, and keep the football out of Luke Falk’s capable hands. WSU is also allowing 206 rushing yards per game, which speaks for itself. Play Demario Richard.
Josh Doctson $8300
As I mentioned earlier, TCU has a team total of 40.5. Doctson is far and away the most expensive receiver, but he’s also the most talented at this point in his career. He has at least 7 receptions in his last 5 games and has gone in to double digit receptions in 3 of those games. If that’s not enough for you, he’s caught multiple touchdowns in 6 straight games and has only gone scoreless one time this year.
Laquon Treadwell $6700
Treadwell is probably a little bit underpriced relative to his skill set and recent production. If you take the matchup with Arkansas in to account, he’s definitely underpriced. Arkansas is allowing 273 yards per game through the air and Treadwell is averaging just shy of 100 yards per game by himself. Nobody in Arkansas’s secondary will be able to contain the mammoth that is Laquon Treadwell.
Chad Kelly $6700
Ole Miss has a team total of 32.5, meaning I expect Chad Kelly to be responsible for 4 touchdowns. Kelly’s price is deflated because his performance hasn’t been incredible, but there’s a reason for it, and that reason is the SEC. He’s already faced the likes of Alabama, Vanderbilt, Florida, and Texas A&M, and has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but 2 of those games. Arkansas is giving up 273 yards per game and I fully expect Kelly to demolish that mark this week.
CJ Beathard $5500
I’m going back to the CJ Beathard well again this week. He was very disappointing last week against Maryland, but if there’s ever a better matchup than Maryland in the Big10, it’s Indiana. The Hoosiers are allowing 342 yards per game through the air this season. I’m not expecting Beathard to throw for 300+ yards, but I could easily see him going for 250 with a couple touchdowns, which is money for only $5500.
Alvin Kamara $3700
I really wish Kamara would get some more carries, and he actually might in a game that they should win very easily. However, even with his limited carries, he’s still very explosive and can get to the second level in an instant and cause even more problems for the inept SC defense. He’s also heavily involved in the passing game, which is where he does most of his damage. Tennessee is a 17 point favorite, and if they cover that spread, I’d expect Kamara to get closer to 10 carries.
Gerard Wicks $3400
This is more of me saying that I think all of the Washington State running backs are in play (Wicks, Harrington, Morrow) at their respective prices, but I like Wicks just a tiny bit more because of arbitrary personal bias. They all see a very similar number of targets and are pretty much all equally effective with their touches. Arizona State is allowing 260 yards per game through the air, but WSU is going to go way over that number on Luke Falk’s 94 passing attempts. Wicks is going to see something like 5-6 targets. He’s been very down on his receptions in the last couple weeks as he’s been carrying the ball more, but this is a great spot for him to get back to being more involved in the passing game.
Devin Lucien $4300
Lucien is currently second on ASU in targets per game, averaging exactly 6, but has a pretty mediocre catch rate of 65%. However, over the last few weeks, he has really stepped up his game, catching 4, 5, and 6 passes respectively. I think this is a trend that we see going forward, and for only $4300 against a defense as bad as Washington State, he’s a steal, even if ASU looks to run the ball more than normal.
Tre’Quan Smith $3700
I hate how bad UCF is. They’re a tough team to target, even against a bad defense like Tulsa. However, I think that Tre’Quan Smith is actually a really good player that somehow got isolated on the terrible football island that is UCF. Early in the season, it was reported by beat writers that Holman and Smith had great chemistry on the field in the spring, and it has shown at certain times this season. This is the perfect spot for them to show that chemistry, as Tulsa is allowing over 300 yards per game through the air.
TCU (-4.5) vs. Oklahoma State O/U 76
There are several high scoring games this week, but I think this one has the most potential for an incredible shootout. Neither defense here is anything special and both offenses can put up points in a hurry. Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson are the best plays of the day at their respective positions and make a great place to start building lineups, if you can afford them. Aaron Green has seen his role decrease this season, and I’m not huge on him in a game that I think TCU will be looking to throw the ball 40+ times. Kolby Listenbee and Kevonte Turpin both make for interesting value plays in a high scoring game, as OSU will be looking, and failing, to stop Josh Doctson.
Mason Rudolph and JW Walsh have been kind of sharing time at the QB position and it’s incredibly annoying. Both of them are overpriced for cash games, but each make great GPP options in their own right, with Walsh probably having a bit more upside as he gets to vulture touchdowns and be annoying. TCU’s weakness is in the run game, but OSU doesn’t really have a feature back. Chris Carson is the most talented back on the roster, but he’s been dealing with a leg injury that has really hindered him. James Washington has been on fire the last two weeks, and is once again a great option. David Glidden is a safe 10 points, but he’s seeing the touchdown’s go to guys like Washington and Brandon Sheperd, who is also in play at his discounted price.
Underowned QB/WR Pair
CJ Beathard/Tevaun Smith – Iowa
I was all over Beathard last week, and even though he underperformed, I still think he’s a great play again this week. Indiana is allowing an astonishing 342 yards per game through the air as they’ve allowed anyone and everyone to throw the ball on them. Tevaun Smith is the most talented receiver on the Iowa roster and he should bounce back from a rough game last week.
Keyarris Garrett $6800
This will be an unpopular opinion this weekend, but I’m not super high on Garrett. I understand that he’s getting an insane amount of targets, but he’s been far from stellar ever since Keevan Lucas went down (outside of his explosion against Memphis). Even with all of the targets he’s getting, Garrett is still struggling to get to 100 yards and has only hit that mark one time in the last five games. He’s also not a big touchdown scorer, so that’s not something we can expect either. He has a great ceiling, but his floor is incredibly limited and I’m not a fan of that at his price.
Depth Chart News
Juju Smith-Schuster – WR USC
Juju underwent a hand surgery and is out for an undisclosed amount of time. This is just all bad for the USC offense, as he is what made them tick.
It’s been a pretty slow week for news. Follow me on twitter @TheJourdanCase for any updates that I may find or any questions you might have.