It’s almost time for college football again! I’ll be here on Tuesdays to help you guys out by giving you the CFB Cheat Sheet here on the DK Playbook. Feel free to follow me on twitter (@TheJourdanCase) if you have any questions or comments and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can! With that said, let’s dive in.
Josh Dobbs – Tennessee $9600
Dobbs burst on the scene last year and took over for the Vols last six games, leading them to a 4-2 record over that span and eventually leading them to a win in the TaxSlayer bowl over Iowa. Over that six game span, Dobbs threw for nine touchdowns and rushed for another eight. The damage he can (and will) do with his legs gives him a great floor and even more upside against a Bowling Green defense that was miserable last year and lost 7 starters.
Luke Falk – Washington State $9600
While I would like to give a bit of a cheaper option here, I think Falk needs to be in this write up. Washington State comes in to this weekend with a team total of 46.5 and if you’ve followed college football at all in recent years, you know that Mike Leach doesn’t like to run the football. He did come out and say that he wanted to run the ball more this year, but I’ll take that with a grain of salt, especially considering the talent he has at wide receiver. Falk performed admirably last year when Connor Halladay went down and I expect him to be even better this year after a full offseason working with the starters. WSU is also returning all five offensive linemen from last season, which never hurts. Side note: Falk hasn’t officially been named starting QB, but all indications are that it is his job. If Peyton Bender does get the nod, he’s a viable option as well.
Nick Chubb – Georgia $10200
According to 5Dimes, Chubb currently has the third best odds to win the Heisman trophy. There’s your narrative as to why Chubb should have a huge first game of the season, if you’re in to that sort of thing. If you’re not, maybe you’ll like the 1,547 yards Chubb rushed for last year, even while being a backup for 5 games. Georgia is a heavy favorite in this game, but they’ll look to establish the run game and get Chubb the ball early and often. I believe that, even if he does happen to sit the 4th quarter, he’ll still be worth the hefty price tag, especially in GPP’s.
Jordan Howard – Indiana $7500
Indiana lost one of the best running backs in the country last year in Tevin Coleman. Lucky for them, Jordan Howard is eligible to play immediately and makes the Coleman loss a much easier blow to handle. Howard isn’t the burner that Coleman was, but he’s a workhorse back and should see plenty of carries in a game that Indiana is favored by 16 points, with a team total of 31 points.
Keevan Lucas – Tulsa $7800
Lucas is coming off of a 100 catch, 1200 yard, 11 touchdown season and will be looking to improve on those numbers as a junior. Tulsa has a Vegas team total of 36 points and money is still flowing in on the over for that game. I expect it to be a high scoring game with plenty of big play opportunity for the speedy Keevan Lucas.
River Cracraft – Washington State $7800
If you continually read my articles or follow me on twitter (@TheJourdanCase) you’ll quickly come to learn that I love River Cracraft, and not just because he has an awesome name. He’s a very talented receiver in an offense that scores a lot of touchdowns and I happen to think that he’s currently underpriced. I mentioned my WSU love this week in the Falk blurb. Pairing the two might not be a bad idea in any format.
Jaquez Johnson – Florida Atlantic $6200
Johnson struggled with inconsistency last year, but has had a full offseason to work out the kinks and get even more comfortable in the offense. Tulsa was one of the worst defenses in the country last year and doesn’t look to be much improved this season. Johnson is another quarterback with dual threat ability and doesn’t hesitate to run the ball 10-15 times per game
Dane Evans – Tulsa $6700
I don’t need to beat a dead horse about this game. It’ll be high scoring and Evans has multiple weapons at his disposal. FAU has a couple solid cornerbacks, but I think the Tulsa offense prevails in this one and that Evans will end up with a pretty nice fantasy line.
Zack Langer – Tulsa $4500
I mentioned earlier that I think there will be a lot of points scored in this game. Tulsa is a 7 point favorite, which means that game flow should work in Langer’s favor as the game progresses and he should see more carries. FAU just doesn’t have a whole lot going on defensively outside of their cornerbacks. Langer also played a workhorse role late last season, carrying the ball 20+ times in 6 of the last 8 games.
Jordan Canzeri – Iowa $3900
This might be the biggest pricing error of the entire slate. Canzeri is stepping in to what should be a workhorse role and has a juicy matchup with Illinois State, with Iowa only being favored by 9. Game flow should play in his favor and he’ll also see some goal line work, if the game permits it.
Jordan Payton – UCLA $4700
UCLA is a big favorite against a Virginia team that looks to have a pretty solid secondary. That says a lot about Josh Rosen, the stud freshman QB for UCLA. I have high hopes for Rosen, and as a result, I like Jordan Payton as well. He’s the most talented receiver on the roster and has plenty of experience. The only problem is that he’s been very volatile over his career.
Jordan Westerkamp – Nebraska $4500
Westerkamp is the team’s leading returning receiver and should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns this year. He’s a big play threat for the Huskers and provides some nice, cheap upside in what should be a fairly high scoring game. He’s not going to go out and catch 10 passes, but he has the speed to get open and bust off a couple long catches and possibly a touchdown.
Vegas – Who to stack and who to avoid
FAU vs. Tulsa (-7) O/U 64.5
I wrote up several players from this game and mentioned it several times, but I think this game turns in to a shootout. The total opened at 61.5 and has since moved to 64.5 with the money still coming in on the over.
Bowling Green vs Tennessee (-20.5) O/U 61.5
Last year, Bowling Green was a formidable offense. This year it looks like Vegas doesn’t have that same respect for them. Tennessee, however, is going to be a high powered offense all year long with Josh Dobbs at the helm. The team total of 41 for Tennessee is very nice and offers a ton of stacking potential.
Games to avoid
Penn State (-7) vs Temple O/U 39.5
This game features two bad, slow paced offenses facing very stingy defenses. I won’t have any exposure to this game in any facet as it just doesn’t bode well for fantasy potential.
Mississippi (-40.5) vs Tennessee-Martin O/U 47.5
If you want to risk playing the Ole Miss players in a GPP, that’s fine, but don’t try to get cute with all of the other options on the slate and play these guys in your cash game lineups. It looks like the starters will only end up getting one half of playing time, which can be enough in certain situations, but this is one that I would avoid.
Underowned QB/WR pairing
Josh Rosen & Jordan Payton – UCLA
I wrote up Payton and raved a bit about Rosen. This could turn in to a dynamic duo throughout the course of the year, why not start early? I mentioned the sound secondary of Virginia, but Rosen is going to be one of the top players in the country and UCLA is projected to score a lot of points, 36.5 to be exact.
Red Lights (play at your own risk)
Matt Johnson – Bowling Green $6500
This BGSU offense isn’t what it was last year and the Tennessee defense looks to be one of the better defenses in the SEC. Johnson, who looked great in his only outing last year, is touted by some as an NFL prospect, but I wouldn’t risk it, even at his cheap price tag this week.
Aaron Jones – UTEP $8100
As the season progresses, Aaron Jones will be a great fantasy option at times. This is not one of those times. He’s a great talent, but UTEP is a huge underdog and Arkansas will have one of the best run defenses in the country again this year.
Injury/Suspension/Depth Chart Alerts
Davis Webb/Patrick Mahomes – QB, Texas Tech
Kliff Kingsbury has yet to name a starter and apparently won’t until game time. If one is named while you can still play them, they’re both great GPP options as TTU will air it out, as always. It doesn’t hurt that TTU has one of the highest team totals of the entire day.
Tyler Boyd – WR, Pittsburgh
Boyd will miss the first game of the season due to suspension. Chad Voytik will take a hit to his value, while James Connor will most likely see a few extra carries and is always a good fantasy option.
Perry Hills – QB, Maryland
Hills looks to be the starting QB for the Terrapins this week. He’s not much of a cash game option but his cheap price tag makes for a nice GPP option if you want to spend at RB or WR.
One Position to Build Lineups Around
It’s a boring statement, but I think there is enough value this week at RB/WR that paying for and building around the QB spot is the best strategy to take. Pick your two favorite QB’s and run with them.