In this article I give six recommended plays for the All-Day slate of Saturday games. Within the six recommendations, three are “Paying Up” plays (top-12 salaries at their positions) and three are “Digging Deep” plays (non-top-12 salaries at their positions).
The data in this piece is taken from DraftKings, Sports Reference and VegasInsider.com.
CHECK OUT MORE CFB WEEK 14 CONTENT
ALL-DAY SLATE: Noon ET
Paying Up: Greg Ward, Jr. (Houston): $7,900
Ward has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the FBS all season. Even with having played minimally in two contests this year, Ward is the slate’s third-most productive quarterback, with 29.9 fantasy points per game, and he is available for the fourth-highest salary at the position. Further, once Ward’s two injury-impacted partial games against Memphis and Connecticut are excluded, he is averaging a slate-high 34.3 fantasy points per contest. Houston is a top-10 team in points scored, and, even though the Cougars are playing against a Temple team that allows only 18.8 points scored to opponents, Houston is still a six-point favorite and has an implied team total of 30.25 points. The possibility exists for Houston to outperform this total, as the Cougars have scored 38.75 points per game against Power Five and ranked opponents. Finally, as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in college, Ward should be involved in almost every touchdown that Houston scores.
In the AAC Championship, Ward has a good chance of passing for 225 yards, rushing for 75 yards, and scoring three touchdowns.
Digging Deep: Joe Hubener (Kansas State) – $5,700
In Week 11, I recommended Hubener as my “Digging Deep” quarterback play against Texas Tech, and in a loss he submitted a 37.5-point performance on a $6,500 salary. Even though KSU is a 5.5-point home underdog to West Virginia with an implied team total of only 26.25 points, Hubener still has a lot of potential to produce in this game. With the 13th-highest quarterback salary, he is the slate’s eighth-most productive quarterback on the season, and in the team’s four losses in which he and QB/WR Kody Cook were not splitting snaps at the position Hubener has been an elite producer, probably because of the positive coming-from-behind game script, averaging 173.5 yards and a touchdown passing and 72.75 yards and 2.25 touchdowns rushing for 33.2 fantasy points per game. At best, Hubener is a mediocre passer, but he leads the team in rushing attempts and touchdowns. Whatever scores KSU does have in this game, Hubener is likely to be involved in most of them.
In Week 14, Hubener has a good chance of finishing with at least 150 yards passing, 50 yards rushing, and three total touchdowns.
Paying Up: Derrick Henry (Alabama): $8,500
Henry was my “Paying Up” running back recommendation last week. All he did was rush 46 times for 271 yards, a touchdown, and 36.1 fantasy points — and now he is $600 cheaper. San Diego State’s Donnel Pumphrey and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey are good top-tier options, but Henry is actually not exorbitantly priced in comparison to them, despite being the slate’s most expensive and productive running back. The favorite to win the Heisman, Henry now leads the FBS both in yards and touchdowns rushing. He has never had fewer than 10 touches for 50 yards and a touchdown in a game. Additionally, in Henry’s nine contests against Power Five opponents, he has averaged 28.3 rushes and 1 receptions for 175.7 yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and 32.7 fantasy points per game. In these nine games, the worst performance Henry had was a 95-yard, one-touchdown campaign. Alabama is an 18-point favorite over Florida and has an implied team total of 29 points. With positive game script, Henry should have no problem reaching 20 touches throughout the course of the game.
In the SEC Championship, Henry has a good chance of compiling 150 yards and scoring two touchdowns.
Digging Deep: Chase Price (San Diego State) – $4,900
For the last two weeks, Price has been a “Digging Deep” recommendation of mine at $4,300, and he has certainly delivered, averaging 14.5 carries and 2.5 receptions for 103 yards, a touchdown, and 20.3 fantasy points per game across that timeframe. This week, even with his elevated salary, Price still seems likely to return value. Price is a dynamic change-of-pace runner behind Pumphrey, and he consistently gets the ball when the Aztecs win. Although his overall seasonal numbers are not impressive, Price is in a favorable situation in that SD St. is a 6.5-point favorite over Air Force with an implied team total of 28.25 points. The Aztecs have won all eight of their games against conference opponents so far, and in those games Price has averaged 16.5 carries and 1.1 receptions for 99.5 yards and 0.9 touchdowns per game. Priced as just the 20th running back in the slate — just as he was last week — Price has production rivaling a high-end RB2 across the last eight games.
In the Mountain West Championship, Price has a strong chance of accumulating 80 scrimmage yards, catching a pass, and scoring a touchdown.
Paying Up: Corey Coleman (Baylor): $6,400
Over the last month, Coleman’s salary has dropped so much that he simply must be rostered in almost every type of contest. Despite not scoring a touchdown for three straight games, Coleman still leads the FBs with 20 touchdowns receiving, and per Pro Football Reference the Baylor wide receiver is the only player since at least 2000 to score 20 touchdowns receiving in the first eight games of the season. That Coleman has only nine receptions and six carries for 162 yards in the last three games and is still the slate’s most productive receiver by 6.7 fantasy points per game is incredible. Although Coleman hasn’t been as productive since starting QB Seth Russell’s injury, in Baylor’s nine wins Coleman has either scored a touchdown or managed 98 scrimmage yards in each game. In fact, in seven of these nine wins Coleman has scored multiple touchdowns, and in eight of these wins Coleman has gone over 100 scrimmage yards. Baylor is a 20.5-point home favorite over Texas and has a slate-high implied team total of 44.25 points.
In Week 14, Coleman has a high chance of finishing what is likely to be his last collegiate home game with at least five receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown.
Digging Deep: Tyler Higbee (Western Kentucky): $4,700
In previous weeks I have gone with productive tight ends as my “Digging Deep” recommendation at the receiver position and had great success. For instance, last week I recommended Jaylen Samuels at $4,400, and he had 102 scrimmage yards and six receptions for 16.2 fantasy points. This week, I’m recommending the most productive traditional tight end in all of college football. Last week, after missing a month of action due to an injury he suffered against North Texas, Higbee returned to the field with a 6-92-2 performance. In each of his seven full games played, Higbee has either scored a touchdown or pulled in seven receptions for 88 yards. As the slate’s eighth-most productive receiver on a per-game basis, Higbee is available at a nice discount with only the 16th-highest salary at the position. Western Kentucky is a 7.5-point favorite over Southern Mississippi and has the slate’s second-highest implied team total with 41 points.
In the Conference USA Championship, Higbee has a good chance of catching at least four passes for 60 yards and a touchdown.