The field of 32 is now set and we get 8 games on this Saturday and by the end of the day we will have 8 teams ticketed to the Sweet 16.

 

Tournament Alert

We have money up for grabs at all different price points today. Take your shots to be the big winner below in college hoops.

$18K Full Court Press – $27 Entry

$14K Buzzer Beater – $3 Entry

 

Game Analysis

We have an 8 game slate that offers O/U’s ranging from 120 all the way up to 160.  The Arkansas-UNC game offers us the highest O/U and the other games actually are not close.  The key will be trying to figure out who in the other games are the ones we want to target.  I think Arizona and Villanova are the obvious other choices to target but with very little value out there, it is going to be tricky.  Lets take a look at who we should be looking at today.

 

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GUARD TARGETS

Studs

 
  • D’Angelo Russell, Ohio St ($9,700) – We are to the point that the studs are going to step up and try to carry their teams onward.  Russell showed that against VCU as he put up 39 points while taking 20 shots.  If Ohio St wants to pull the big upset of Arizona, they are going to need Russell to do everything on the floor and get back to his triple-double type stat lines.  I am not sure who will be put on Russell defensively as Arizona has some pretty good size, but he may have the quickness on them.  I think his rebounding numbers could take a hit in this one but they will need him to put up 20 shots again and share the basketball as well.
 
  • R.J. Hunter, Georgia St ($9,300) – Hunter is trying to turn himself into the story line of the NCAA tournament as the coach’s son who drains the huge shot to spring an upset on Thursday.  Hunter had a pretty rough game overall as he contributed just 22.25 fantasy points, however he has 5 38+ point games over his last 10 and is able to get hot quickly.  This Georgia St has a legit chance to advance to the Sweet-16.
 
  • Marcus Paige, UNC ($8,100) – The UNC-Arkansas match-up is going to be splitting at the seams full of fantasy goodness as this game has the highest O/U by far on the day.  Paige is what makes the Tar Heels tick and he is a safe bet for 25+ and offers us 45+ fantasy point upside.  He has 4, 34+ fantasy point games over his last 10 and I think the tempo in this one will make it easier for him to approach 40.
 
  • Norman Powell, UCLA ($7,600) – Was that late shot by Alford a goal-tend?  I argue no as I believe the bottom of the ball passed over the plain of the rim but that is neither here nor there.  Powell took a back seat to Alford’s 9* made threes but he did manage to put up 32.5 fantasy points.  He has the highest usage rate on the team and UCLA has gone from a “worst at-large selection ever” team to being a favorite in the round of 32.  How does that work?  Well, I guess that is a whole different debate.  Powell should be a lock for 25+ in this game and can go for 50 any night.
 
  • Michael Qualls, Arkansas ($7,600) – Qualls gets to play in the highest O/U as I pointed out above and he tends to flourish when the game plays at a wide open pace.  He put up 26.25 fantasy points thanks to 20 real game points on Thursday and has sat between 23 and 33 fantasy points over his last 7 games.  He showed us 45 fantasy point upside earlier this season and is going to have his opportunities in this game.
 

 

 

Values

 
  • Josh Hart, Villanova ($5,500) – Hart has been at 21+ over the last 5 games and has shown us a high of 31 during that stretch.  His price has barely moved over the last few weeks and he continues to play 26+ minutes a night.  Villanova is projected to be the third highest scoring team of the slate and Hart will definitely contribute to that.  He is a great rebounder for a guard and has put up 15 of them over the last 2.     
 
  • Tyler Ulis, Kentucky ($4,500) – Over his last 4 games, Ulis has averaged just under 30 minutes of action and has put up 77 fantasy points over that stretch.  Not too bad for just $4.5K and I think he is somebody you really have to consider for this slate as there is not a ton of value and you will want to find a way to get the big guys in your lineups.  He assists on 28% of the made baskets when he is on the floor so he should have his hand in a lot of the offense, even with this game having such a low O/U.
 
  • Tyler Madison, UAB ($4,100) – Madison has played 35 minutes over the last 2 games and has managed to put up 40.25 fantasy points thanks to 16 points and 17 rebounds.  He has shown to have nearly 30 fantasy point upside this season and as long as he gets 15+ minutes he should be able to get near value in this one.  His teammate, Watts, is another option for value and he seems to have safer minutes but not the point upside.
 

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FORWARD TARGETS

Studs

 
  • Bobby Portis, Arkansas ($9,200) – Portis is probably the top forward play but not by much as he is going to have to deal with the size of UNC.  The last time he played a front line with the size that UNC offers, he put up 47.25 fantasy points again LSU.  He has come across as nearly match-up proof and this game has such a high O/U that I think Portis should be a lock for 30+ and offer his normal 50+ point upside.
 
  • Stanley Johnson, Arizona ($7,700) – Johnson is playing very solid basketball and he looked like a top NBA draft pick on Thursday.  He played second fiddle to Hollis-Jefferson’s monster game but still managed to finish with 32.25 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action.  Ohio St does not offer much in terms of wing defenders other than Sam Thompson and even he should struggle mightily against the length and athleticism of Arizona.  Johnson has basically gone for 30+ in 3 of his last 4 games.
 
  • Brice Johnson, UNC ($7,500) – Johnson put up a very underwhelming 15.75 fantasy points in 22 minutes in the near loss to Harvard.  Prior to that he had been playing very well and sitting around the 29-30 fantasy point mark rather consistently.  It’ll be interesting to see which one of the UNC bigs will draw the assignment of guarding Portis.  I am hoping it is not Johnson and that will allow him to roam the paint a little more and pick up boards and avoid the foul trouble that plagued him Thursday.
 
  • Matt Stainbrook, Xavier ($7,400) – I will start this out with my Thursday story as a bunch of my friends and I followed our yearly routine and hit up our local sports bar with front row seats at 10 am to get ready to watch basketball, some time had elapsed and the Xavier game was on one of the TV’s and my friends were joking about this big, ugly white dude on the floor who looked like he didn’t belong.  They were mesmerized at the numbers he was putting up in the game and just kept putting up.  Yeah I know, cool story and all but that leads me into Stainbrook as there is never anything sexy about him but he is putting up numbers right now and that can not be ignored.  He has gone for 28.5+ in 4 of his last 5 games with a high of 41.75 fantasy points.
 
  • Zach Auguste, Notre Dame ($6,400) – I could have listed a few more guys in this spot but with the way that Auguste has played of late, I just can not ignore him.  He has put up 69.5 fantasy points over his last 2 games and has seen his price jump $1.4K.  He certainly offers some stress as he does find himself picking up stupid fouls and getting into foul trouble early but when he is on the court he is able to put up fantasy points in a hurry.  Butler does have some size down low but nobody that I am completely afraid of here.
 

 

 

Values

 
  • Jae’Sean Tate, Ohio St ($5,100) – Tate is definitely a GPP play as he does have the tendency to get into foul trouble and disappear from games.  However, I think Ohio State is going to need a third player to step up behind Russell and Scott in this one in order to have any chance of the upset.  Tate could definitely be that guy as he went for 23.5 fantasy points on Thursday before fouling out.  He has shown us 30+ fantasy point upside.
 
  • Alandise Harris, Arkansas ($4,900) – Harris is somebody that could be very sneaky in the highest scoring game of the day as he is coming off of 19.5 fantasy points against Wofford and just 4 games ago he put up 28.25 fantasy points against Tennessee.  He is far from a safe play as he offers a single digit floor, however I think the odds of that in this high scoring of a game are very minimal.
 
  • James Farr, Xavier ($4,100) – Farr put up 24.25 fantasy points in 23 minutes of action on Thursday.  He grabs rebounds at an extremely high % when he is on the court and earlier this season managed a double double in just 11 minutes of action.  He is certainly prone to foul trouble and also his minutes are far from a guarantee however he has started recently and I think that should lock him into 20-25 minutes of action and he is capable of getting more than a point per minute and should be able to return 5x or more on his salary in this one.
 

 

That’s what we have for today and hopefully its a great day for you guys.  Hit me up on twitter, @Razzle11Grinds, if you have any questions or even news to share.  I will certainly do my best to share injury news.