Welcome to the last Saturday before the NCAA tournament gets started, as we have an 8 game slate of teams battling to win a conference tournament title. There are a number of solid plays today, and the guard position gives us a bunch of interesting value options. Let’s take a look at who we should be considering, and, as always, hit me up on Twitter (@Razzle11Grinds) with any questions you might have!
J.J. Frazier – Georgia vs Kentucky – $8,200 – Frazier disappointed a little bit yesterday, as he failed to cross the 30 fantasy point mark after having gone for 37+ in five straight games. He struggled greatly the first time these two teams played, and while the match-up is not ideal, I think Georgia needs a huge game from him if they want to pull the upset and earn a spot in the SEC Title game on Sunday. Frazier offers us the kind of upside we need in our GPP lineups.
Trey Freeman – Old Dominion vs Middle Tennessee St – $8,100 – Freeman has had somewhat of a down year compared to last year; however, he is in all out chuck mode right now, as he has fired up 20+ shots in nine out of his last 10 games. He has put up 126 shots over his last five games, so we know the volume is going to be there. He went for 38 fantasy points the first time these two teams met this season.
Scoochie Smith – Dayton vs St Joes – $6,600 – Scoochie has been extremely up and down over the last handful of games, as he has gone for 16.25, 53, 37.75 and 18.25 fantasy points in his last four games. Prior to that he was consistently sitting between 25 and 35 fantasy points. I have a soft spot for Scoochie, as he did wonders for me at the end of last season. Dayton gets a tempo boost in this one, and Scoochie put up 30.5 fantasy points the first time these two met.
Other Options – Denzel Valentine ($10,900), Jack Gibbs ($9,900), Melo Trimble ($8,000), Quenton DeCosey ($7,700), Jalen Jones ($7,300), Giddy Potts ($7,100), JeQuan Lewis ($6,200), Antonio Blakeney ($6,200)
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman – Michigan vs Purdue – $5,000 – MAAR had a pretty solid performance yesterday, as he finished with 20 fantasy points before fouling out. Foul trouble derailed a really solid game, as about 15 of those fantasy points came in the first half. Thursday’s game saw MAAR put up 32.5 fantasy points. He put up 61 fantasy points in two games against Purdue this season, so we know he is capable of performing against a solid defense.
Jalen Adams – UCONN vs Temple – $4,900 – I realize Adams put up his points yesterday in that epic 4 OT game, and he may be a bit gassed today; however, we have seen runs like this from UCONN in the past, as some unheralded guys step up and carry them to a conference title. Adams should be coming into this game on a high, and that’s always a good thing.
“He has taken 40 shots over those three games as well, so we are getting Brown at a peak of his play”
Aaron Brown – St. Joes vs Dayton – $4,500 – Brown has gone for 82.5 fantasy points over the last three games and has played 33+ minutes in each of them. He has taken 40 shots over those three games as well, so we are getting Brown at a peak of his play, rather than finding a cheap play that is struggling. This game is a tempo down game for St. Joes, so we do have to temper our expectations; however, I do expect him to be a very popular cheap option today.
Other Options – Bryn Forbes ($5,900), Jonathan Williams ($4,800), Dakota Mathias ($4,600), Admon Gilder ($4,300), Jaqawn Raymond ($4,200), Daniel Dingle ($4,100), Edward Simpson ($4,000), Lamarr Kimble ($3,500)
A.J. Hammons – Purdue vs Michigan – $8,000 – Hammons is always an interesting play for me, as he generally has a solid match-up. However, we do not know what his minutes are going to be. He wasn’t needed much yesterday, as Purdue dispatched Illinois quite easily. Hammons offers us a 60+ fantasy point upside, and Michigan offers very little to detour him from dominating. Hammons might be my favorite GPP play today.
Reggie Upshaw – Middle Tennessee St vs Old Dominion – $7,700 – Upshaw has been a beast recently, as he has gone for 30+ in six straight and eight of his last ten games. He has three 40+ games in his last four, as well. Upshaw has the highest upside of any of the plays on MTSU today, and I would not be shocked to see him go for 40.
Jaylen Bond – Temple vs UCONN – $6,600 – I am going to continue to ride Bond, even though the match-up is less than ideal and the over/under is pretty low. Bond has put up 58.25 fantasy points in two games against UCONN this season, and UCONN could certainly show up pretty tired in this one. The second half could be extremely trying for them, and Bond has a great opportunity to dominate on the boards.
Other Options – Deandre’ Bembry ($9,100), Isaiah Miles ($8,400), Yante Maten ($8,000), Matt Costello ($7,500), Dyshawn Pierre ($7,200), Tyler Davis ($6,500)
Mo Alie-Cox – VCU vs Davidson – $5,900 – Alie-Cox is built like he is playing the wrong sport, as the guy is just a beast. He has gone for 24+ in six straight games with a high of 40.25 over that stretch. He averaged 38.25 fantasy points over two games against Davidson this season. Davidson has a pretty weak defense and Alie-Cox should dominate the paint in this one.
“[He] has 59.75 fantasy points over his last two games and is basically locked into playing 28+ minutes”
Nathan Ekwu – Davidson vs VCU – $4,900 – Ekwu has 59.75 fantasy points over his last two games and is basically locked into playing 28+ minutes for Davidson. He has the upside we want in our GPPs, but he has the low floor that we do not want in cash lineups. This game should be the highest scoring of the slate, so we should see a few guys reach value.
Denzell Taylor – Old Dominion vs Middle Tennessee St – $4,700 – Taylor has been extremely solid for ODU, as he has gone for 20+ in five straight games. He hits the boards extremely well; however, he seems to be an after thought on the offensive end, which limits his upside some. Should he find his way into 7-10 shots, he could approach 30 fantasy points today.
Other Options – Deyonta Davis ($5,400), Justin Tillman ($4,700), Skal Labissiere ($4,400), Mark Donnal ($4,200)