Today’s CBB Targets break down the college basketball slate we have with a look at the studs, sleepers, and mid-range players you want to have in your lineups.
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We have an 8 game slate of NCAA Basketball to work with tonight and a few interesting games to target. The Mississippi/Georgia game has the second highest O/U at 138 and only a 4 point spread. That is probably my favorite one. The other interesting one is the Minnesota/Nebraska game at a 130 with a 3 point spread. The other six games are all very low totals and/or pretty high spreads. The home teams also happen to be the favorites in those other ones, so they really give us few options to swerve off of if you worry about maximum minutes potential like I do. Teams like Kentucky, Iowa State, and Florida are all expected to put up big numbers today so we could even see a few of those players make good values before giving way to the walk ons late in the game. With those guidelines in place let’s take a look at some potential plays.
- Monte Morris, Iowa St. ($7400) – Sophmore Point Guard does a little bit of everything for the Cyclones. In his last two games he has stat lines of 11 points, 10 assists, and 7 rebounds preceeded by 11 points, 9 assists, and 7 rebounds. Both were good for 30+ DK points which would be a nice four times return on his price. Cyclones are expected to score about 75 points today and win easy, so I can see him again getting near the double digit mark in both points and assists. The rebounding will drop back to earth a little, but he can still put up 25-35 DK points pretty easily tonight and that would be very good cash game value with solid GPP upside.
- Andre Hollins, Minnesota ($7100) – For the second spot here I debated his merits hard against those of the Mississippi duo of Jarvis Summers and Stefan Moody who are also solid plays at the G spot tonight. I go with Hollins because he has averaged 37 minutes over his last 4 games. This one is expected to stay close and he should see close to that again today. He has returned 4 times, 4.5 times, and 7 times value in 3 of his last 4. His price jumped almost 20% for today but even on that he would have still returned 3.5, 4, and 6 times salary in those 3. The one bad game he had was a dreadful 7 point performance two back vs. Iowa but he bounced back with a career game next out to erase that bad memory. The safety of his minutes makes me love his floor and the game script gives me reason to believe he has upside, so this was where I ultimately landed. I would not knock anyone who went with either of the Mississippi guards. My problem there is which one to choose?
- JJ Frazier, Georgia ($6200) – This is a line up filler as he is not going to be the guy who gets you 40 DK points. He most likely will not get you 30 DK points, but he is very safe for 18-25 of them and that is good value for you at his price. He has seen upwards of 30 minutes in recent games and has two straight 20+ point DK performances. In a high O/U game and with his decent usage rate I think he does enough to get you over the 20 DK point mark again today and at worst that is over 3 times value and keeps you on a good pace to cash in your 50/50s and GPPs.
- Georges Niang, Iowa State ($8100) – Pre-Season All-American has seen his price come down a little in recent weeks and his production tick up. That’s a good recipe for putting him back on our fantasy radars. He can fill up a DK stat sheet as he averages around 9 reb/ast per game combined to go with his 15 ppg average. He has been shooting better from outside with his last few games being well above his 3 point attempts made average to start the season. He is still below where I thought he would be as far as FG% so far, but maybe a date with K St. tonight is what he needs to get back on track. He is a little pricey, but I think we have yet to see that breakout game from him. Iowa State is expected to be one of the higher scoring teams tonight and it makes sense that Niang should benefit from that.
- Marcus Thorton, Georgia ($7300) – Georgia big man has been a really solid contributor all season, but has stepped it up a little bit lately. Since conference play has started he has been a monster on the glass and consistent point scorer for the Bulldogs. He had a huge 16 point 16 rebound performance last week and is a very solid bet for at least 15 and 6 boards tonight which would put him over 3 times his salary in DK points as a floor. This is the highest O/U game with a close spread tonight so he should continue to see around the 33 minutes per game he has averaged over the last 4. With a high minutes rate and good rebounding and scoring numbers it would not be a stretch to expect him to even outproduce that. His upside on a price per dollar scale may even exceed Niang’s today for me and If I had to choose I would probably lean his way in a GPP and save a few hundred bucks for elsewhere.
- Nemanja Djurisic, Georgia ($5300) – Big guy has been a little bit of an enigma in recent games. He has back to back sub par performances of 11 and 13 DK points, but he is still playing 30+ minutes in these games and that is a good sign. He had performances of 31, 28, 24, and 22 DK points already this season and is current at a 15-20% discount from his high price in previous games. He has some risk, but I will take my chances on a big guy getting 30 minutes in a high O/U game at a price where on numerous occassions already he would be 4-6 times his salary today. There is risk with him as he tends to just be out there and not rack up any stats for long stretches, but he also has a good 4-5 times salary type of upside today with a good chance of getting there. Not sure I would use both Georgia Forwards mentioned here in the same lineup, but if you wanted Niang and exposure to that high O/U game then this is a way to afford him and give yourself a piece.