We will take a look at some of today’s top overall plays as well as some value plays to help you fit in your studs.  Make sure you take your shot at qualifying for the March Mania Bracket Tournament!

 

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Game Analysis

A big Wednesday brings us an impressive 13 game slate tonight.  9 of the 13 games have O/U’s at 130.5 or higher, which should tell you all you need to know.  Tonight is going to be a pretty high scoring evening and we are going to have to aim a little higher when it comes to our value return goals.  The top game to target tonight will be the greatest rivalry in CBB and maybe in sports, UNC-Duke, as the O/U is set at 160.  The other games in the 140’s are Providence-DePaul 147, Iowa St-Oklahoma St 146, Missouri-Arkansas 141.  With all the projected high scores, I think we can safely avoid the Kansas State-TCU game with an O/U of 119.5, Vanderbilt-Florida with an O/U of 125.5 and VT-Miami with an O/U of 128.5.  In some instances, I do not hate some plays from those games based on possible value fits but they aren’t going to be targeted.

 

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GUARD TARGETS

Studs

 
  • Kris Dunn, Providence ($10,500) – Dunn is by far the best fantasy player in the game with the second highest O/U of the night.  Add in the fact that the last time these two met, Dunn went for a triple double en route to 65.75 fantasy points.  I will go out on a limb and predict he doesn’t go that crazy tonight, however I feel he is the safest of the top plays even with that $10.5K price tag.
 
  •  Terry Rozier, Louisville ($9,000) – With the news that Rozier’s teammate, Chris Jones, has been suspended we are left wondering who picks up the slack.  The initial thought is Wayne Blackshear and while I think Wayne makes a fine option, I believe Rozier is the better choice even at $9K.  Rozier has put up 2 double doubles over his last 5 games as well as 80 shots over those last 5.
 
  • Norman Powell, UCLA ($7,600) – Powell gets the nod over his teammate, Alford, due to the $800 savings.  The UCLA-Arizona St O/U is set at 139.5 and we should see this game stay close, as ASU is favored by just 2.5 points at home.  He’s coming off a 30.25 fantasy point game and has shown us nearly 40 point upside.  He’s also a willing rebounder and has ranged between 5 and 10 boards over the last 10 games.
 
  • Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida State ($7,500) – XRM makes a return to my column and let’s hope I do not jinx him like I seemed to every other time he’s been listed.  The game is somewhere in the middle with a 130.5 O/U.  XRM has shown us 50 fantasy point upside and has shown a very solid ability to get us 35+ on any given night.  He’s not afraid to put up shots, as over his last 10 games he has 6 games with 13+ shots, one of which had him taking 26 shot attempts.  Coincidentally that 26 shot game was when he went for 49.75 fantasy points against my Tar Heels.
 
  • Michael Qualls, Arkansas ($7,100) – Qualls appears to be getting healthier and his performance is starting to return to what it was about a month ago.  These two teams played about a month ago to a 61-60 game in Missouri. This meeting has an O/U set at 141.  In the last meeting, Qualls put up 15 shots but struggled from the field en route to just 16 fantasy points.  That game was actually the start of a few rough shooting games but I look to Qualls to continue to build on his most recent games as he has gone for 26 and 30.75 points the last 2.
 

 

Values

 
  • Keith Shamburger, Missouri ($6,000) – Shamburger has been pretty solid lately and I expect that to continue with the loss of his teammate, Wes Clark, for the season.  His price has jumped $1K over the last 10 days however I still believe him to be slightly under priced in a match-up that is expected to be one of the higher scoring affairs of the night.  He has been averaging 10.8 pts, 6 asts, 4 rebs and 1.5 3’s per game over the last 4.  He doesn’t seem to shoot the ball extremely well but his slight usage bump from the loss of Clark will help offset his 39% shooting.
 
  • Gerry Blakes, Arizona State ($5,500) – I think Blakes is going to be extremely popular tonight and for great reason.  He has put up 36 and 37.75 fantasy points over the last two and is playing extremely confident basketball right now.  With a fast paced game on tap tonight and against a UCLA backcourt that doesn’t exactly scare me from a defensive stand point, I think its safe to target a 27-30 fantasy point game tonight from Blakes.
 
  • Scottie Lindsey, Northwestern ($3,300) – Lindsey has shown us glimpses of being able to put up fantasy points in a short period of playing time and with JerShon Cobb expected to miss this game, I expect to see Lindsey to duplicate his last game against Iowa where he played 38 minutes (thanks to OT) and scored 18 fantasy points.  I am not sure his upside goes much passed the 20 point mark, however that is more than enough to reward his $3.3K salary in a game with an O/U of 129.5.
 

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FORWARD TARGETS

Studs

 
  • Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin ($9,700) – The WIS-PennSt matchup has an O/U of 130.5 and the last time these two played, the final ended up 89-72 in Wisconsin’s favor.  Kaminsky put up an 18-14 double double in that game and I look for him to do something very similar.  Penn St does not have much down low and I think Big Frank should be able to control the glass, much like he has done with 30 boards over the last 3 games.  I think he is the safest of the studs today to reach a 35+ fantasy point game.  I know 35 does not get you 4x+ value however with your studs, you do not necessarily need that as much as you need it from  your value and mid range guys.  I want to plug in his 35+ points and move onto the next spot.
 
  • Jahlil Okafor, Duke ($9,600) – Okafor does not play like a freshman at all and is capable of a 50+ fantasy point performance on any given night.  This game has the highest O/U of the night at 160 and you are going to need some exposure to this game.  I think Okafor is the best bet from Duke to go off tonight.  Over the last 10, his fantasy performances have ranged between 18 and 49.25 fantasy points.  Over that same time frame, he has put up 5 double doubles as well.
 
  • Bobby Portis, Arkansas ($9,100) – Portis’ price has dropped $500 after a dud of a game where he put up just 19.75 and miraculously failed to register a free throw attempt.  Prior to the last game, he had put up 35+ fantasy points over the previous 4 games.  I look for Portis to return to double double form tonight as he went for a 12-10 double double the last time these two teams met.
 
  • Michael Gbinije, Syracuse ($8,400) – Gbinije has been rock solid over the last 10 games as he has gone for 30+ fantasy points in 8 of them.  He’s coming off of a 43 fantasy point performance against Duke where he played all 40 minutes.  He rarely comes off of the court and is averaging 39 minutes per game over the last 10.  I think he is one that a lot of people look over and initially think he is priced too high without looking over game logs.
 
  • Le’Bryan Nash, Oklahoma State ($7,600) – The Oklahoma St-Iowa St game has an O/U of 146 and the last time these two played, Nash went for 35 fantasy points.  He is coming off of a 30.75 fantasy point game and I will look to Nash to continue his solid play of late.  He’s not the sexiest of picks but at his price point, he is the most consistent and we need some stabilizing in our lineups.
 

 

Values

 
  • Jameel McKay, Iowa State ($5,600) – Generally I feel like most of Iowa State is overpriced, however that is not the case with McKay and for some reason his price always seems to stay very affordable.  He has been inserted in the starting lineup and is Iowa State’s best interior player as he is averaging 8 boards a game over the last 4.  He has the ability to get you a very solid 15 and 10 double double and seems very safe for a 25+ fantasy point game tonight.
 
  • Savon Goodman, Arizona State ($5,400) – Goodman is another one that just never seems to be priced correctly and that is perfectly fine with me.  Over his last 3 games, Goodman is averaging 31 mpg, 14 ppg and 12 rpg.  If there are any knocks on Goodman, its the fact that he does not really share the ball and he is not very good from the free throw line.  I know, its nitpicking but I had to hide my love affair with him somewhat.  Plug and Play, end of story.
 
  • Tommy Hamilton IV, DePaul ($4,800) – After a few bad games, Hamilton appears to be back in good graces with the coaching staff after putting up 30.25 fantasy points in 28 minutes against St. Johns.  He is definitely a GPP only play tonight as he is very boom or bust.  The last time DePaul took on Providence, Hamilton went for 29.75 fantasy points.  This game has the second highest O/U of the night and his possible value return is almost impossible to ignore and should be put on at least 1 of your GPP lineups.
 

 

That’s what we have for today and hopefully its a great day for you guys.  Certainly hoping I can take down one of the March Mania Tournament qualifiers today and save me some stress!  Hit me up on twitter, @Razzle11Grinds, if you have any questions or even news to share.  I will certainly do my best to share injury news.